I Feel Your Pain

James Acton raised questions about my account of nuclear deterrence at the presentation last Wednesday. Good questions. It set me thinking.

I don't mean to argue that deterrence doesn't work. Or even that nuclear deterrence doesn't work (although that is an open question.) Let me try to be clear.

Classic nuclear deterrence theory says that the use of nuclear weapons against civilians - cities - inflicts pain. There's no doubt that this is so. A nuclear attack against a city would kill hundreds of thousands or even millions. That there is pain here is obvious. Classic nuclear deterrence theory, however, has gone one step further. It has presumed that leaders would feel this pain. That it would matter to them.

The historical research that I've done on city destruction raises the question whether this is true. Again and again in history, leaders have countenanced the slaughter of civilians on a significant scale. I am not arguing that using nuclear weapons would not cause pain. I am only asking for evidence that leaders would be influenced - coerced - by that pain.

The historical evidence seems to run counter.